Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Are Eagles Equipped To Move Up In Round One?

Are the Eagles equipped to move up in round one to grab a top player? To simply answer the question, no.

To give some reasoning behind that, let's first take a look at Philadelphia's ammunition based on the famous draft pick value chart:

Round 1: 22 overall (780 points)
Round 2: 54 overall (360 points)
Round 3: 86 overall (160 points)
Round 4: 122 overall (50 points)
Round 5: 162 overall (26.6 points)
Round 7: 237 overall (<2 points)

You'll notice some discrepancies, those are based on the draft pick value chart lacking compensatory picks. That screws with the numbers, but it's a very good estimate of point values.

Mike Evans has been a hot topic lately, with bogus reports that Philadelphia is interested in moving up based on an over-analyzed pre-draft visit.

Scenario 1:

Let's assume he slides down to number 13 and the Eagles want to trade with St. Louis for that spot. Here's an example of what it would cost:

Philadelphia receives: 13th overall pick (1150 points)

St. Louis receives: 22nd overall pick (780 points) and 54th overall pick (360 points)

It doesn't take a genius to realize that is an insane move to make. Evans, who is far from a finished product, is not worth a 1st AND 2nd round pick for a team that needs talent on defense.

Now that the ridiculous "report" has been squashed. Let's look at another scenario that could play out.

Scenario 2:

OLB Anthony Barr takes a slight tumble in the draft, at pick 19 Howie Roseman realizes he needs to jump the Arizona Cardinals in order to land Barr. Howie makes a call to Miami:

Philadelphia receives: 19th overall pick (875 points)

Miami receives: 22nd overall pick (780 points), 122nd overall pick (50 points), and 162nd overall pick (26.6 points)

While it make a little bit of sense to aggressively grab a high-ceiling pass rusher, it would leave the Eagles with only four picks in the 2014 Draft. A draft that is praised on its depth.

Now they could attempt a trade down in round two and add to the total, but it makes way more sense to gain picks rather than give away picks.

Scenario 3:

This scenario is specifically for the fans who think the NFL Draft is video game.

"Just go trade up and get Jadeveon Clowney!"
"If Howie was smart, he'd trade up to number two and take Sammy Watkins."

This is for those guys:

Philadelphia receives: 2nd overall pick (2600 points)

St. Louis receives: 22nd overall pick (780 points), 54th overall pick (360 points), 86th overall pick (160 points), a 2015 first-round pick, a 2015 second-round pick.

Can we just stop that nonsense, please?

It's easy to tell Howie Roseman to go get "Player A", but it's not smart. Not with six draft picks. The Philadelphia Eagles need MORE draft selections, not less.

In a deep draft, there's going to be many talented players available at pick 22. There's going to be very talented players at pick 30, and pick 36. That's why, to me, it makes much more sense to trade down or stay put at 22.

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